Emad Mekay

WASHINGTON, Jul 27 2005 (IPS) — The U.S. House of Representatives will decide the fate of the controversial Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) this week in what many analysts predict will be a very close vote, prompting a spate of intensified lobbying by opponents and advocates of the deal, including Pres. George W. Bush.

Bush made a rare visit Wednesday to Capitol Hill to convene a private meeting with hesitant House Republicans he hopes to talk into backing legislation to close the deal. A final vote is expected this evening.

CAFTA would join the United States with Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua, and a related pact with the Dominican Republic, to liberalise trade and eliminate tariffs.

According to Republican lawmakers, the president argued that CAFTA also has strategic importance for U.S. national security, and that failure to pass it would undercut progress toward democracy in Central America. Bush was accompanied by National Security Adviser Stephen J. Hadley, his chief of staff Andrew Card, U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman, and his embattled chief political adviser, Karl Rove.

Some senior administration officials have let it be known that they are willing to negotiate side agreements and even entertain requests for special projects in legislators’ districts to win the last few votes needed for passage.

Congressional Republican leaders were also trying hard to bolster CAFTA support in face of a strong Democratic opposition. Democrats have opposed the deal for several reasons, including that it is likely to erode labour standards in Central American nations rather than lifting them up.

In a bid to defuse these criticisms, the administration recently promised to spend 40 million dollars a year to boost labour rights in the region.

Members from both parties who represent textile and sugar-producing states have also opposed CAFTA for its potentially negative impact on those industries, if U.S. markets are flooded with imports from Central America.

"It will be a tough vote, but we will pass it tonight," predicted House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, a Republican from Texas. "And we will do it with very few Democrats."

The president had discussed the vote with some Republican members of the House who came to the White House on Tuesday.

The administration’s lobbying efforts have come under fire from a broad array of labour, environment, textile, sugar, manufacturing and faith-based groups, and Central American activists.

They argue that CAFTA, passed by the Senate on Jun. 30, would in essence expand the decade-old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the United States, Canada and Mexico.

NAFTA has been blamed for destroying a million U.S. jobs, bankrupting over 38,000 family farms, and pushing more than 1.5 million farmers off their land in Mexico.

"The deal-making currently underway to attempt to pass CAFTA in the U.S. Congress blatantly ignores the needs and interests of people in Central America and the Dominican Republic, particularly the poor," said Stephanie Weinberg, trade policy advisor with the international advocacy group Oxfam.

In turn, some Republicans and conservative organisations have painted CAFTA opponents as Marxist demagogues, and complained that enemies of Washington, like Daniel Ortega, former president of Nicaragua, and Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela, are also against it.

A coalition of conservative and business groups has pledged full support for CAFTA passage in the House of Representatives this week. These include Americans for Tax Reform, the American Conservative Union and the National Taxpayers Union.

CAFTA would eliminate trade barriers immediately on 80 percent of U.S.-made goods and 50 percent of agricultural products, and the rest within a few years. This, advocates say, will boost U.S. sales abroad and job creation at home as it opens a market of 44 million consumers.

But critics charge that CAFTA’s environmental and labour provisions are weak and unenforceable. In addition, HIV/AIDS campaigners say its provisions on intellectual property rights would make it nearly impossible for Central American governments to secure affordable drugs for their people.

Both opponents and advocates have been calling their representatives in Congress, particularly in swing districts, and holding rallies, sit-ins and educational events to win backing for their positions. Local coalitions have mobilised around the country, from San Francisco, California to Portland, Maine.

"We are resolved as ever to fight to the last minute before the vote," said Burke Stansbury of the Committee in Solidarity with the People of El Salvador (CISPES), which opposes the deal.

The Stop CAFTA Coalition, one of the largest opponents, and other U.S.-based advocacy groups have been targeting undecided members of Congress all week.

On Tuesday, activists in New York held a rally demanding that Rep. Gregory Meeks vote against CAFTA, while in Washington, activists joined members of Congress to speak out against CAFTA in the capital.

Labor groups warn that the deal would extend NAFTA’s disastrous job loss, when U.S. companies relocated to take advantage of lower wages, weaker worker and environmental protections, and better access to the U.S. market.

The powerful umbrella group of U.S. labour unions, the AFL-CIO, has urged millions of its members to contact their representatives to urge them to vote against the deal.

The AFL-CIO says that even companies that did not export jobs under NAFTA used the threat of leaving the United States to break union organising drives and win concessions at the bargaining table.