Analysis by Am Johal

VANCOUVER, Dec 4 2006 (IPS) — Stephane Dion, a bookish political science professor, walked away from Canada’s Liberal Party convention as the leader of his party after a lengthy year-long battle reminiscent of the 1968 contest which propelled a young Pierre Trudeau to the same position.

Dion, by all accounts, lacked the Trudeau charisma but emerged as the safe choice for leader.

Higher profile and more charismatic candidates, including human rights scholar Michael Ignatieff and former Ontario Prime Minister Bob Rae, failed to bring together a consensus on their ability to lead and unify the party. Ignatieff had lived outside the country for close to 30 years and Rae had been a member of the New Democratic Party (NDP) until recently.

Dion brought a wealth of federal cabinet experience with him, but stunned the crowd with his victory on the fourth ballot. The turning point in the race came when the fourth place candidate, Ontario Education Minister Gerard Kennedy, dropped out of the race and endorsed Dion. This move leapfrogged Dion in to second place ahead of Rae on the third ballot with the momentum on his side. Much of Rae’s support then went to Dion on the final ballot.

Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff, both the children of diplomats who had the support of the establishment of the party, failed to win over grassroots members. Rae and Ignatieff had been roommates in their university days and their ideas had both been shaped by the political philosopher Isaiah Berlin.

Ignatieff proved to be a charismatic but polarising figure due to his 30 years living in Britain and the United States, and due to a series of high-profile gaffes which highlighted his political inexperience and his hawkish foreign policy ideas which were out of step with mainstream Canada. Though Rae resurrected the left wing of the Liberal Party, his lacklustre term as NDP premier during a recession in the early nineties plagued his chances at the position with many long-term members.

Stephane Dion had entered politics in 1996 after winning a by-election and had gained a formidable reputation as a defender of the federalist cause. Then Prime Minister Jean Chretien brought in the Laval University professor to argue the side of federalism to Quebecers. He continued to be a capable cabinet minister in a variety of roles and eventually led the charge in defending Canada’s support of the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gas emissions as environment minister under then Prime Minister Paul Martin..

The Liberal leadership race began when former leader Martin stepped aside after losing his minority government to Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party in January of 2006 largely due to a sponsorship scandal in Quebec.

Many political observers view Dion’s win as challenging to the Liberal Party’s growth possibilities in western Canada, a traditional weakness of the establishment party. As well, his support of the Kyoto Protocol will alienate the Conservative and oil-rich province of Alberta – strong supporters of Prime Minister Harper. Concerns about Dion’s ability to bring Quebecois support back to the party have also been raised. The Liberal Party has traditionally formed majority governments by campaigning from the left and then governing from the right.

Dion’s challenge will be in bringing the different factions of the party back together and finding leadership roles for Ignatieff, Rae and Kennedy. The next election could come as soon as this spring. The Conservative government could fall by early spring based on the federal budget, Canada’s role in Afghanistan or over the status of Quebec. The Conservatives are right now relying on the tenuous support of the separatist Bloc Quebecois.

In his acceptance speech, Dion said, “We do not believe the Conservatives have bad intentions; we simply believe they lead to bad results.” Due largely to his low profile in the rest of the country, he will more than likely run a campaign touting a “dream team” of cabinet-worthy running mates.

As Canada’s environment minister, Dion earned high praise for his work chairing the U.N. Climate Change summit in Montreal in 2005. Dion has a BA and MA from Laval University and a PhD from Institut d’Etudes Politiques de Paris from France. He is an expert in public policy administration.