Sonny Inbaraj

ADDIS ABABA, Dec 29 2003 (IPS) — The greatest irony in the peace process between

Ethiopia and Eritrea is that there are two glaring sides to it. During 2003, on-the-ground international observers had something to cheer for. There had not been a renewed war between the two Horn of Africa states. But the bad news, however, sticks out like a sore thumb diplomatically.

Politically, both sides are at a tense standoff and the international diplomatic community is at its wits end in trying to break the deadlock. What will happen next in 2004 is anyone’s guess.

At the latest Military Coordination Commission (MCC) meeting in Nairobi,

Kenya – the last one for 2003 – armed forces’ leaders from both countries committed themselves to maintaining military stability. The MCC is the only forum where the two sides hold face-to-face talks under UN auspices.

Ethiopia and Eritrea agreed in principle to set up commissions for their military leaders to meet. The UN mission in both countries said the move is a “most positive and significant development”.

The United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) has 4,200 UN troops, including some military observers deployed in a 25-kilometre wide buffer area, called the Temporary Security Zone, between the two states.

At a video-linked press conference, between the capitals of both countries, last week, UN Force Commander Major General Robert Gordon said he hoped the commissions could diffuse any incidents that might otherwise flare up.

“The greatest fear that we all have, and it’s shared by my colleague commissioners from Eritrea and Ethiopia, is of a flare up, a localised incident, which if there was trust and good communication on both sides could be damped down very quickly,” said Gordon, who also chairs the Military Coordination Commission.

“This is the most positive and significant development that we’ve had in the MCC in the last few months, short of (border) demarcation,” he added.

But the positive news ends here.

The border town of Badme was the flashpoint of the 1998-2000 Ethiopian-Eritrean war in which the dead and wounded was estimated at 100,000. During the campaign, about half a million troops were involved and 600,000 civilians were displaced. Three years later and Badme is still the issue between both countries.

Badme is currently under Ethiopian administration. But under the ruling by the Hague-based Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission (EEBC) – made in April 2002 – the town lies in Eritrea.

The irony is that both Ethiopia and Eritrea committed themselves to be bound by the decision of the EEBC in the border demarcation between the two countries, as spelled out in the Algiers Agreement that ended the war in Dec. 2000.

But in September, Ethiopia rejected the commission’s ruling that Badme belongs to Eritrea and the peace process is, now, what the United Nations calls as “under severe stress”.

Members of Ethiopia’s Tigrayan community reportedly oppose the Badme ruling because they fear losing access to ancestral graves located in the area. There is also said to be a school of thought in Ethiopia that opposes giving Eritrea any territory at all; this is on the grounds that Eritrea’s 1993 secession from Ethiopia already dealt the country a blow by cutting of its access to the Red Sea.

Early last month, the boundary commission said it was unable to begin demarcation of the 1,000-kilometre-long common border between the two countries. But it said it was “ready and willing to proceed as soon as conditions permit”.

The boundary commission has already begun scaling down staff in its Eritrea office and no definite date has been fixed for the demarcation. The border demarcation was originally scheduled for May, then July and finally October.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and his Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin have publicly stated they have “lost confidence” in the boundary commission.

In September Zenawi stunned the international community when he wrote a three-page letter addressed to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan and the Security Council.

Zenawi called the EEBC ruling on Badme “illegal, unjust and irresponsible” and warned the decision was a recipe for continued instability, and “even recurring wars”.

Eritrea, on the other hand, is watching with consternation from the sidelines and is urging the international community to help resolve its crisis with Ethiopia.

On a recent visit to Egypt, Eritrean Foreign Minister Ali Seid Abdella called on the international community “to deploy efforts to encourage Ethiopia to apply the decision” of the border commission.

Abdellla said the EEBC decision was based on article six of the UN Charter, which calls for sanctions on the side rejecting the Algiers Agreement.

Legwaila Joseph Legwaila, UN Special Representative of the Secretary-General Annan, has called for dialogue between both sides and said the alternative was “too ghastly to contemplate”.

“The international community realises what it expects in the peace process between Ethiopia and Eritrea. Therefore the international community is going to work very hard to ensure the peace process succeeds,” he said.

But a dialogue with Ethiopia seems to be out of the question for Eritrea.

“Eritrea completely refuses to talk with Ethiopia as long as there is an international decision that this country has not applied and (has) rejected,” said Foreign Minister Abdella.

Last month Eritrea withdrew its ambassador to the African Union (AU) in Addis Ababa over what it said was the body’s failure, as a custodian to the Algiers Agreement, to condemn Ethiopia.

The international community, however, seems to be losing patience over the impasse and the hardening stance of both countries.

Richard Koos, the European Union’s Director-General for Development, said during a visit to Addis Ababa last week that Ethiopia should abide by the EEBC decision. He warned that the country would risk losing its development partners if it kept disputing the decision.

All eyes are now on the appointment of a special UN envoy early 2004, to add weight to ongoing diplomatic moves to break the current deadlock.

There is speculation that former Canadian foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy might be appointed to the post after UN Secretary-General Annan presents his progress report on the peace process to the Security Council on Jan. 7.