Zoltán Dujisin

By Zoltán Dujisin
BUDAPEST, Sep 15 2006 (IPS) — Experts from the United States have recently – and controversially – visited several localities in the Czech Republic and Poland to consider a military base for the National Missile Defence (NMD) programme.

The complex, expected for 2011, would comprise one section with ten anti-missile interceptors and up to 1,000 U.S. soldiers, and another part consisting of a radar. Sections of the base may be divided between the two new European Union (EU) member states.

The system is intended to protect the United States and its allies by intercepting long-range missiles from countries perceived as hostile to Euro-Atlantic interests. Presently, such systems are deployed only on U.S. territory.

The controversial NMD programme has so far proven extremely costly, and in view of the tests carried out so far, quite ineffective.

But leaders in the Czech Republic have other concerns about allowing a U.S. base.

The debate on granting a U.S. base escalated through the prolonged political campaigning in the country this summer, where the June parliamentary elections ended in a stalemate. A breakthrough came only recently through the approval of a weak, neo-liberal minority government.

Czech diplomats have held consultations with U.S. officials on the base, but it is uncertain who will have the final word on the Czech side.

The new conservative administration headed by Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek supports a base, but is likely to lose the confidence vote in parliament due by Oct. 4. The biggest opposition group, the Social Democratic Party of former prime minister Jiri Paroubek opposes the base, and hopes to form a government if the cabinet loses the vote.

The debate around the U.S. military base is playing in Paroubek’s favour.. According to polls, most Czechs are against the military base and want a referendum, which the government opposes.

Nonetheless, Paroubek says he would consider the idea of setting up only a radar, if approved by popular vote. The former prime minister has also said consultations with Russia are “essential” to reach a decision, following Russia’s opposition to the plan..

This is in sharp contrast with the majority of Czech intelligentsia, which is markedly pro-U.S. even by post-communist standards, and dismisses opposition to the base as flowing from ‘anti-Americanism’.

Other parties such as the Communists, Greens and Christian Democrats also oppose a base, but the Greens and Christian Democrats would consider it under North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) command, and if approved by referendum.

Topolanek has said that a refusal to accept a base would harm the Czech Republic’s reputation as a reliable ally, and insists that “the construction of the umbrella against missiles is in accordance with our commitments within the NATO and EU security and defence policy.”

Czech Defence Minister Jiri Sedivy has expressed his preference for a missile defence system integrated with NATO, and not set up exclusively through U.S.-Czech cooperation. This contradicts the Prime Minister’s optimistic view.

According to Tomas Weiss, fellow at the Prague-based Institute for European Policy, the issue has been unduly politicised. “The debate has been understood as putting the Czech Republic as a target of terrorism due to its closeness to America,” he told IPS..

Weiss supports the idea of the base, but is pessimistic about the outcome. “I don’t think we will have a base because we won’t agree on it.”

Those in favour of the base are keen on extending ties with the United States, and feel many economic benefits would soon follow, as well as a change in the unfavourable visa regime.

Opponents of the base argue its establishment would reawaken a Cold War atmosphere in Europe, reignite the arms race, and increase the danger of terrorist attacks. Many also express concern over the limited jurisdiction the Czech government would have over the base.

Opponents have already organised themselves around the ‘No to the Bases’ initiative, which encompasses some 35 civic organisations demanding a referendum on the issue. These groups point to parallels with the 1968 invasion of former Czechoslovakia by Soviet troops.

“In 1968 foreign troops entered Czechoslovakia without its citizens’ consent”, Jan Tamas, spokesperson for the initiative told the media. “At present, too, there is the threat that foreign troops will enter the Czech Republic, while there is no guarantee that the public could decide on this in a referendum.”

The United States is still assessing reports and is likely to postpone its decision until after the late November NATO summit to be held in Latvian capital Riga, where it hopes to win over the many NATO members who have been wary of a project that could undermine European security.