Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 2005 (IPS) — Amid growing signs of disarray and malaise in the White House, U.S. President George W. Bush is seen increasingly by the public at large as a failure whose policies, particularly regarding the economy and the budget, have harmed more than helped the country, according to a major new poll released here Thursday.

The poll by the Pew Research Centre for the People & the Press also found that Bush’s public approval ratings have fallen to an all-time low of 38 percent and that public support for maintaining troops in Iraq, where a constitutional referendum will take place Saturday, is dwindling.

The U.S. electorate is now evenly split between those who believe the U.S. should withdraw as soon as possible and those who believe the troops should stay until the country is stabilised.

The poll, which was conducted Oct. 6-10 among 1,500 randomly chosen adults across the nation, also shows declining support for the Republican Party and should give hope to Democratic strategists who believe their party has a good chance to regain control of at least one house of Congress in the mid-term elections in November 2006.

Nearly 70 percent of respondents said they hope to elect a president “who offers different policies” than those put forth by Bush and, by a 48-32 percent margin, they believe that the Democratic Party “can bring needed changes to the country”.

On the other hand, the assessment of the Democratic leadership in Congress appears no stronger than that of their Republican counterparts, despite the recent criminal indictments in Texas of House Majority Leader Tom DeLay and an investigation into stock trades by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

Each of the two party leaderships received the approval of only 32 percent of the public, a continuation of a downward trend in public confidence in Congress. On the question of which party is most likely to govern “in an honest and ethical way”, however, the Democrats were chosen by a 40-30 percent margin, their biggest advantage on the issue since 1994 when Republicans took control of both houses of Congress for the first time in more than a generation.

Democrats hope that the 2006 elections will bring about a similar swing. In another survey released Wednesday night by the Wall Street Journal, 48 percent of respondents said they hoped the Democrats would achieve that goal, while only 39 percent said they favoured Republican control.

The latest survey comes amid growing evidence of disarray within the Bush White House, which has been forced on the defensive over the last two months on a range of issues. Foremost among these are the war in Iraq, the wider war on terror, its performance in dealing with Hurricane Katrina, high petrol prices, and, most recently, the nomination of the president’s long-time attorney, White House Counsel Harriet Miers, to the Supreme Court.

The last move has created deep rifts within Bush’s own right-wing constituency, both because Miers’ views on issues – such as abortion rights and the relationship between church and state – that are of central importance to the Christian Right, in particular, are unknown and because her lack of experience in constitutional law suggests that she was chosen more for her personal loyalty to the president rather than to a particular ideology.

These concerns, which have only grown and become more controversial since the appointment was announced earlier this month, have clearly demoralised party activists already unhappy over Bush’s steady slide in the polls and his reaction to Katrina.

In addition, Bush himself, in some of his recent public or media appearances, has seemed more distracted and quicker to anger than usual, most notably in a widely-remarked interview of the president and Laura Bush conducted by NBC television’s Matt Lauer Tuesday.

On Thursday, the White House press briefing was dominated by questions about the “scripting” of a video exchange between Bush and U.S. troops in Iraq, in which the latter were told what to ask and how to respond in advance.

Some analysts here attribute the accumulating image-management problems to growing concerns within the White House about the possibility that Bush’s closest political adviser, Karl Rove, and Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief of staff, I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, may soon be indicted in connection with their role in leaking the identity of a covert CIA officer whose husband had badly embarrassed the administration over its reasons for going to war in Iraq.

According to this view, Rove, whom Bush has long referred to as his “boy-genius”, has been distracted by the investigation, which has also fostered debilitating tensions between Rove and Bush’s chief of staff, Andrew Card. It may have also weakened Cheney’s role, generally regarded as the most powerful of any vice president in history.

What is particularly remarkable about the Pew survey, however, is how quickly Bush’s fortunes have fallen, particularly since his inaugural in January and since Pew’s last soundings in July and September.

His overall approval ratings stood at 50 percent – historically low for a just-re-elected president – in January, slid to 44 percent in July, and only 38 percent this month.

Similarly, 36 percent of respondents said that they thought that Bush would be a “successful” president last January. That number has fallen to 26 percent, while those who believe he will be “unsuccessful” have climbed from 27 percent in January to a plurality of 41 percent today.

That compares unfavourably to former President Bill Clinton’s low-point just before the 1994 elections when 35 percent of respondents thought he would be unsuccessful.

Even more worrisome for Republicans, the survey found “a notable lack of enthusiasm” for Bush’s performance among respondents who identified themselves as party loyalists and the continuation of a long-standing trend of disillusionment with Bush among “independents” who traditionally decide elections.

As to the overall direction of the country, the 40 percent who said they were “satisfied” in January, slipped to 35 percent in July, and 29 percent today. The 54 percent who said they were “dissatisfied” 10 ¬ months ago has risen to 65 percent.

The only area in which a plurality gave him a positive assessment was on national security, but even there Iraq appears to have become more and more of an albatross. A majority of 52 percent favour setting a timetable for withdrawal (43 percent oppose); while 55 percent – up from 50 percent in July – fear that the U.S. will “wait too long” to do so, compared to 32 percent who worry that Washington will “leave too soon”.

The poll found a sharp decline in the percentage of respondents who said the military effort in Iraq is going either very or fairly well – from 53 percent last month to 44 percent in October. The plunge was particularly sharp for men, a 16-percent drop in just one month.

The survey also found that the public was paying little attention to the constitutional referendum in Iraq but believed that it would have a relatively small impact on stabilising the country.

That finding may give some heart to the administration because there was a similar scepticism about just before last January’s elections. The smoother-than-expected balloting then, however, boosted support for the U.S. military presence there over the following several months, although it has since fallen to record lows.