Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON, Oct 18 2006 (IPS) — Five years after the 9/11 terrorist attacks on New York and the Pentagon, the U.S. public has become increasingly anxious about world events and the role that their country is playing in them, according to the latest “Confidence in U.S. Foreign Policy” survey released here Wednesday by a non-partisan group, Public Agenda, and Foreign Affairs journal.

The survey, which was overseen by legendary pollster Daniel Yankelovich, found a substantial rise in concern about how the U.S. is perceived in the world and particularly in predominantly Muslim countries, compared to the last survey, which was conducted in January.

Nearly 90 percent of respondents said they considered it a threat to U.S. national security when “the rest of the world sees the United States” in a negative light.

Nearly two-thirds of respondents said the world currently feels either “somewhat” or “very” negatively toward the country, while nearly four in five said they believe the country is seen as “arrogant”.

“It’s not just a matter of (wanting to be) well-loved or nice,” stressed Yankelovich in a conference call for journalists Tuesday. “People see it as threatening to our national security.”

The survey queried 1,001 randomly chosen adults Sep. 5-18, the same period that President George W. Bush made of number of high-profile appearances to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks and defend the continued U.S. presence in Iraq.

It also found that nearly 80 percent of respondents believe the world is becoming more dangerous for the U.S. and its citizens. A 43-percent plurality said it was becoming “much more dangerous”.

The perception of greater danger was largely due to concerns about the Middle East, which was cited by 42 percent of respondents as the greatest foreign policy problem facing the country, far ahead of any other single concern and six points higher than the January survey.

Fears about terrorism and Islamic extremism have also increased markedly over the past year, according to the survey, while concern about Iraq, while relatively stable over the same period, remains sufficiently high to be considered at a “tipping point”; that is, an issue on which public opinion is so intense that politicians – as many incumbent lawmakers are finding in the ongoing mid-term campaigns – cannot afford to ignore it.

Indeed, according to virtually all political analysts here, public dissatisfaction with the Iraq war has become by far single biggest obstacle to Republican chances of retaining control of both houses of Congress in the Nov. 7 elections. Polls this month have consistently shown that nearly two-thirds of the public disapprove of the way Bush is handling the war.

According to Yankelovich, a tipping point is reached when the vast majority of the public says they are concerned about an issue, with more than 50 percent insisting that they are a concerned “a lot”, and when majorities believe that the government can do something about it. According to the latest survey, 55 percent say they worry “a lot” about the casualty toll in Iraq.

Last January, the survey found that, in addition to Iraq, a “tipping point” had been reached on the importance of reducing U.S. dependence on foreign energy supplies. But the percentage of respondents who said that they “worry a lot” about that problem fell from 55 percent to 46 percent in the latest poll – perhaps a reflection of the steep plunge in gasoline prices since the summer.

Concern about two other issues that were approaching a “tipping point” earlier this year – illegal immigration and preventing jobs from moving overseas – has also receded somewhat over the past nine months, as fears about a new terrorist attack and growing hatred of the U.S. in Muslim countries have grown, according to the survey.

The latest survey introduced a new “Foreign Policy Anxiety Indicator” – based on answers to five questions, including whether the world saw the U.S. in a positive or negative light and whether the world had become more or less dangerous to the U.S. and its citizens – designed to measure to measure the degree of confidence the public has in U.S. foreign policy at any one time.

Other questions included how worried respondents were about the way things are going for the U.S. in the world (83 percent said they are worried either “a lot” or “somewhat”); how successful the U.S. is as a leader working toward a more peaceful and prosperous world (69 percent rated its performance ” fair” or “poor”); and whether U.S. relations with the rest of the world are on the right or wrong track (58 percent chose wrong).

On a scale of 0 to 200, where 0 connotes complete confidence and 200 panic, the index determined a current score of 130: in Yankelovich’s words, “troubling, not yet dire, but quite troubling”.

“This level of public anxiety, combined with Americans’ disapproval of the nation’s current course, is not something leaders can just dismiss,” he noted.

Underlining that finding was the low degree of confidence shown by respondents in the administration’s ability to achieve its key foreign policy goals. Less than a third of respondents gave the administration As or Bs on achieving its objectives in Iraq and Afghanistan; less than a quarter on reducing U.S. dependence on foreign energy sources; and less than a fifth on improving relations with Muslim countries or protecting U.S. borders from illegal immigration.

Indeed, the survey found a substantial increase in the percentage of respondents that gave the administration failing grades on most of some two dozen foreign policy issues, compared to the January poll and a previous one conducted in June, 2005.

“It’s a combination of mounting threats from all over the place, and (the sense) that we don’t seem to have any real control in responding to it,” said Yankelovich, who compared the “growing uneasiness or malaise” to the late 1970s when the country suffered a number of foreign policy reverses and persistent inflation and unemployment, dooming the re-election of then-President Jimmy Carter.

“While you don’t have the same level of concern about the economy today,” he said, “I think Iraq is at least as worrisome as the Vietnam (war) and maybe more so because of a feeling that the stakes may be higher in Iraq, perhaps because of its involvement with Middle East… The concern with Iraq is the linchpin to all of the other uneasiness than Americans feel.”

While the survey found growing concern about alienating foreign – particularly Muslim – opinion and stronger support for diplomacy and cooperating more with other countries on a range of issues, it also suggested greater more intense public backing for preemptive attacks against countries developing weapons of mass destruction.

It also found that 70 percent of respondents believed that criticism of the U.S. for being too pro-Israel to broker an Israeli-Palestinian peace was either “totally” or “partially” justified – a notable increase from previous surveys.